Thursday, October 20

Woke up around 8:40am. Feeling tired of the week; alright, I'll sleep more tomorrow. Morning errands, then went to the lecture.

10-11:30am Modern Middle East History lecture. Continuing nationalism development in the region after WW1. Places that had never seen themselves as separate entities each claim thousands years of heritage, establish a lineage to ancient past. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt. Professor: "220 years ago no-one thought about themselves as part of Iran, Syria, etc. – that was not something people would have an idea about". State education, history education reenforces the nation building. 

In parallel, pan-nationalism develops. It starts with Pan-Slavism – the idea that Slavic language speaking people are somehow all part of a single "thing" (Slavic civilization?). Similarly, develops Pan-Arabism, Pan-Turanism (Turkish speaking), Pan-Islamism (on the ground of religion). If Pan-Slavism was mostly used by Russia as a tool of imperialism, then others, e.g. Pan-Arabism, were not as centralized. It is natural to feel affinity for the people that speak your language, but pan-nationalism presumes also some political alignment – and that's its central point.

The most serious conflict of interwar period is between nation states and Pan-nationalism. Cairo in Egypt becomes the center of Arab cultural life, various intellectual movements develop, Arabism; Egypt becomes the leader of Arab world. The opposition are nationalists that claim the continuity of ancient Egyptian heritage – they eventually prevail.

2:40-4pm Topology lecture. Finishing some less interesting theorems across general topology. Mostly known from analysis: complete metric spaces, Cauchy sequences, etc. The plan is to finish general topology next week and move to algebraic topology after.

6-7:30pm Sergei Guriev gave a talk about his new book "Spin Dictators". His main point is that economists and political scientists expected that economic growth would cause countries to become more democratic – but that didn't happen ("modernization theory"); instead, a new form of "softer" dictatorships developed, that he calls "spin dictators". He says the old-generation dictators "fear dictators" – those rule by fear; the new-generation spin dictators rule by deception. They are characterized by simulating democracy, manufacturing public opinion via propaganda and lies, hiding violence rather than showing it to induce fear; talking about economic development and progress. 

Well, that's the book's theory – but it didn't age well. Now Guriev argues spin dictators start shifting back to the ol' good fear dictatorships: Putler this year, Erdogan showing early signs, Chavez to Maduro transition. 

As of me, I'm skeptical of all these political theories trying to predict the future. Sure, there's data, there are trends across the world in how autocracies do not just tell people "we have a new tsar for you", but legitimize their rule by simulating democracies and confusing people by misinformation. But it gives us little insight into why and how: why people in autocracies behave the way they do, how dictators think, and what can we do about all that? Guriev is optimistic saying those autocracies are unsustainable, but I remain worried. Well, it's a short talk, maybe the book answer that too. Interesting topic anyway.

Feeling super tired by 10pm, but then suddenly energized again. Bed by 2am.